RBA's Looming Decision: A Double-Edged Sword for Homeowners?

1

A majority of economic pundits propose that the RBA’s prolonged battle against inflation has reached its zenith, with inflation indicators finally settling into a comfortable two to three per cent bracket. This belief inclines most experts towards anticipating a rate reduction. However, insights from a report on finder.com.au signal that 10 experts out of a 37-member panel might expect otherwise.

"The pressure mounts for the RBA to lower rates as headline inflation has relaxed into the desired range," stated Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at finder.com.au. Yet, he advises caution by noting that a conclusion is not definitive.

Conversely, some critics express restraint amid residual concerns over persistent inflation drivers and economic stability. The original article from news.com.au highlights that not all panel members endorse immediate rate adjustments.

Noel Whittaker, from the Queensland University of Technology, indicates patience might be prudent under current conditions, emphasizing, “Labour market constraints and high construction sector inflation continue to exert upward price pressures.”

Richard Holden of UNSW Business School raises another pertinent concern: core inflation metrics, after subsidies, linger above the two to three per cent target, pegged at 3.3 per cent. His colleague, Dr. Evgenia Dechter, concurs, suggesting the RBA's decision could err on the side of caution regarding the stability of core inflationary figures.

Sydney University’s Stella Huangfu also signals a pause, stating that while inflation nears target levels, the buoyant job market signals resilience in the economy which could dissuade immediate rate adjustments.

Adding to this cautious sentiment, Sean Langcake from Oxford Economics Australia identifies potential lingering pressures that could arise from unassessed elements of inflation once subsidies dissipate. He remarks that services inflation, buoyed by a tight labour market, continues to be a concern.

Furthermore, a depreciating Australian dollar may compound issues, increasing import costs and fuelling inflation. According to Peter Boehm, a managing director at Pathfinder Consulting, reducing rates might, in this context, amplify inflationary pressures rather than alleviate them.

External global factors also compound these domestic dynamics. The unpredictability in international trade climates, notably with geopolitical movements such as tariff policies from the US, add to the uncertainty clouding the RBA's path forward.

The RBA's forthcoming move will be its first potential readjustment since it initiated rate hikes four years ago. A cut, if it occurs, would indeed mark a pivotal shift from the 13 upward adjustments that have propelled the cash rate to 4.35 per cent.

This anticipated cut, should it materialise, promises tangible benefits for mortgage holders. Homeowners with an average mortgage may see a reduction in monthly payments, with notable savings in interest expenses.

With an election on the horizon, political stakeholders remain particularly vested in the RBA's decision. Treasurer Jim Chalmers maintains that even amid economic uncertainty, the government’s priority remains addressing cost-of-living challenges, underlining, "Our focus on alleviating financial burdens for Australians remains unwavering, irrespective of the RBA’s decision."

Published:Tuesday, 18th Feb 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Telstra Boosts Dividend and Announces $750 Million Share Buy-back 20 Feb 2025: Paige Estritori Telstra, Australia's leading telecommunications giant, has unveiled a significant financial move with an increase in its dividend and plans for a substantial share buy-back initiative. Following a notable 7.1% rise in first-half profit, the company aims to allocate up to $750 million for repurchasing shares. - read more

Victoria's Land Tax Shift: A Boon for First-Time Home Buyers Amidst Investor Retreat 20 Feb 2025: Paige Estritori In recent findings by Ray White, reports indicate a notable retraction of property investors from Victoria due to increased land tax rates introduced by the state government. The data highlights that investors owned over one-third of Melbourne homes auctioned by Ray White in the past year and 32.2% of regional Victorian homes. - read more

Softer Employment Figures Could Ease Inflation Concerns 20 Feb 2025: Paige Estritori In light of recent economic indicators, Australia's central bank may find comfort in softer job growth numbers. Despite earlier concerns over potential interest rate hikes, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could see current trends as easing pressure on inflation. - read more

FAAA Questions Significant Rise in AFCA Claims Handling Costs 20 Feb 2025: Paige Estritori The Financial Advice Association of Australia (FAAA) is pressing the Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA) to justify projections indicating a substantial increase in its claims handling costs. According to an actuarial report, these costs are expected to jump from $12,450 per claim in 2024/25 to $21,334, a surge that raises concerns among financial advisors and industry stakeholders. - read more