Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
1
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As Donald Trump embarks on his second presidential term, investors are shifting focus from a prolonged rate reduction period to what is being called 'Trumpflation'.
This marks a notable shift towards anticipating inflationary pressures under Trump's pro-growth policies.
Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.
"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."
Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.
Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.
"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."
With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."
The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.
Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."
The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.
Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
KTM AG, the renowned Austrian motorcycle manufacturer, has successfully secured €600 million in funding to meet its debt obligations, marking a significant milestone in the company's ongoing financial restructuring. This development comes after a period of financial turbulence that led KTM into self-administration and a comprehensive restructuring process. - read more
Peter Stevens Motorcycles, a cornerstone of Australia's motorcycle retail industry since 1970, has entered voluntary administration, revealing debts exceeding $65.9 million. This development casts uncertainty over the future of the company's 400 employees and its extensive customer base. - read more
The Australian motorcycle market has experienced a modest decline in sales during the first nine months of 2025, with a 2.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. According to data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), a total of 63,988 motorcycles were sold between January and September 2025. - read more
Harley-Davidson, the iconic American motorcycle manufacturer, is reportedly in discussions to sell a stake in its financing unit, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). This move could have significant implications for motorcycle financing options available to consumers. - read more
When it comes to purchasing a new motorcycle, securing favorable loan terms is essential for a smooth and affordable financial transaction. Negotiating motorcycle loan terms allows you to have better control over interest rates, loan duration, and repayment conditions, ultimately ensuring that you secure the best possible deal. - read more
Are you dreaming of hitting the open road on a brand-new motorcycle, but unsure about the financial leap it requires? Navigating the world of motorcycle loans can initially seem daunting, but understanding how to secure a favourable deal is crucial. - read more
The thrill of the open road, the rush of wind past your helmet, and the sense of uninhibited freedom—all of these are sensations associated with owning your very own motorcycle. The desire to experience this liberty is what drives many to consider the purchase of their first bike. However, the journey to becoming a motorcyclist involves more than just selecting a machine that looks and feels good; it requires a thoughtful approach to the budget and cost of ownership. - read more
When it comes to hitting the open road on a new motorcycle in Australia, securing the right loan can significantly impact your financial journey. Motorcycle loans are an essential tool that can help you purchase your dream machine. However, understanding how to navigate these loans can make a world of difference in both your purchase process and your long-term financial health. - read more
Start Here
Knowledgebase
Discount Rate: The interest rate used to determine the present value of future cash flows, often used in discounted cash flow analysis.
